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New Missouri Population Projections Released
The following press release was issued by the Missouri Office of Administration on Friday, April 25:
State Releases Population Projections through 2030
JEFFERSON CITY - Commissioner of Administration Larry Schepker announced today that the state has released a new set of population projections for the State of Missouri, all 114 counties and the City of St. Louis, through the year 2030. "I hope these projections assist individuals and communities across the state by providing additional information about Missouri population trends," the Commissioner stated.
Based on the latest projections:
- Missouri's population is expected to approach 6.8 million people in 2030, a growth of roughly 1.2 million people from the year 2000, which will represent a 21% increase in the state's population.
- Missouri's rank among the nation's most populous states has been on the decline since the turn of the century, when Missouri ranked fifth in the nation. Missouri's standing fell two positions during the decade of the 1990s dropping from the fifteenth spot in 1990 to seventeenth by 2000. Missouri's projected growth rate of approximately 6% per decade is slower than the nation's projected rate of 10% per decade.
- By 2030, persons over age 65 will represent more than one-fifth of all Missourians. Senior citizens are expected to increase 87% between 2000 and 2030 when there are projected to be 1.4 million seniors.
- The number of children under the age of 18 in Missouri is expected to increase but not as rapidly as persons 18 and over. Between 2000 and 2030, Missouri children are expected to increase by roughly 7% while the 18 and over population will increase by nearly 25%.
- Natural change (births minus deaths) will continue to add the largest number of people to Missouri's population. Natural change is expected to add an average of 244,000 Missourians per decade. Moreover, net migration (those migrating in compared to those migrating out) is expected to further increase Missouri's population by 139,000 persons every ten years.
The projections were completed by the State Demographer, housed in the Office of Administration's Division of Budget and Planning. The projections were reviewed by a team of demographic experts before being released. Note: The projections do not include breakouts by ethnic group. 2007 estimates of Missouri's population by race and ethnicity will be available, by county, in August of 2008 from the U.S. Census Bureau.
More information and the complete set of projections can be found at the following link: http://www.oa.mo.gov/bp/projections/.
(View the complete release on the OA web site at http://www.oa.mo.gov/co/releases/042508PopProjections.htm.)
The projected data are also available here on the MCDC web site (for access via Uexplore/Dexter) in a new filetype/subdirectory, moprojs (Missouri projections). In addition to the raw data we have also created a directory of xls (Excel spreadsheet) files which include population pyramid charts. We also aggregated the data to county-based regions and provided a pair of alternative datasets where we transposed the data so that projection years become row IDs and the demographic categories (age and sex) become columns (variables).
New Economic Data From BEA
The Bureau of Economic Analysis has released its annually updated Regional Economic Information System ("REIS") data, with estimates through 2006.
The MCDC has downloaded and converted that data and it can be accessed from our data archive using the
Uexplore/Dexter web tools, in the
beareis data directory.
New Population Trends Application
Access this new application from this menu page.
You will be able to choose a state of interest, 1 or more counties within that state, any of 8 different time periods ranging from 1990-2006 to 2005-2006, and any of 13 key demographic categories (total population, black population, hispanic population, elderly population, etc.) The results are displayed in a new format for the MCDC. The rows of the column are contained in a scrollable table where the column headers are fixed as you scroll through the data lines. The report can be printed and it will handle page breaks and repeating the column headers on each printed page (even though it is an html file, not a pdf.)
We are working on adding a button to let you save the report data to an excel file.
You can also go directly to a report (bypassing the front-end window) where the geography is pre-chosen and all time periods and demographic indicators are specified by using our applinks interface tool. (See the Applinks Master Menu link in the Navy blue navigation box on the left of this page, or (for Missouri counties only) use the Missouri County Data Map link from the Quick Links box on the right. After the report is displayed there is a link at the bottom of the report that takes you to the menu page in case you want to customize the report or select different geography. The application supports multiple geographies within a state.
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