Population Estimates for Missouri and Across the U.S.

Rev. 5/25/2017

This Year (2017)

We received and processed (in late March, as usual) the first cycle of county level estimates (in late March) with estimates for each year 2010 to 2016. These are the components of change estimates.

We received and processed the sub-county estimates in late May. Estimates for places, places-within-county and MCDs. These data were used to create the Curmoests.xlsx file (all data for Missouri - see link, below).

Estimates Schedule

See the official Census Bureau Schedule of New Estimates page to see what and when to expect the rest of this year and next.

See also: FAQ | Census Bureau estimates page | popests data (via Uexplore).

Our Best Estimates

  1. Access the Curmoests.xlsx Excel spreadsheet with the latest available population estimates for Missouri counties and places (incorporated cities). Last updated 5/25/17 with state, county and place estimates thru July 1, 2016. You can also get earlier versions of this spreadsheet with post-2000 estimates for the previous decade in the popests data directory.

  2. County Level Charts and Maps of post-2010 population change, For each estimate year (starting with 2014) we have created a set of charts and maps showing some key variables measuring change in population for the most recent year at the county level. There are reports, bar charts and choropleth maps (one set per state). The best way to access is via the Menumap.html page (change the year in the URL to access other years). This page is a county level choropleth map of Percent Change in Pop over the latest year, one that doubles as a drill-down menu map . Simply click anywhere within a state to view a set of charts for that state. You can also move the mouse over a county to display its name and the percent change information for the area. When you link to the individual state pages with the various charts and maps (for example, pop2016mo/charts.html) you should also note that the bars in the Bar Chart of Fastest Growing Counties as well as the counties in the final choropleth map ("Showing Percent Change in Pop") are links to html reports/charts showing population change for all years from 2010-2011 to latest (showing net migration as well as total net change).

  3. Run the MCDC's Population Estimates by Age web application to dynamically generate estimates by age, race, sex and hispanic origin for U.S. states and counties, for years 1990 to 2015 (or later?). An alternate version of this application is the Census 2010 Version which delivers comparable demographic detail but only for years 2000 and 2010 - using actual census counts rather than July 1 estimates.

  4. Access various reports based on data in the popests data directory at /pub/data/popests/Reports. This page provides links to both the reports and to the underlying datasets used to generate them.
  5. Reports based on casrh data for all states.
  6. Population Trends is a dynamic web application that can generate customized trends reports at the state or county level for various time periods. Change and Percent Change values, both total and annualized are shown to facilitate comparisons over time. You get to choose
    • the geography (states and/or counties for the entire U.S.)
    • time periods (intervals such as 1990-2000, 2000-2010 and 2010-2013)
    • demographic categories, based on age, race and ethnicity
    This application uses the detailed estimates from NCHS so the latest available data are currently for 2016 (as released in June, 2017). Race categories used are the four "bridged" values.

  7. Generate a brief report with bar chart showing annual population change for any US county from 2000 to 2016 (or most recently available year) using the MCDC's annual state and county population trends web application.
  8. Access this report comparing postcensal and intercensal estimates at state and county levels for the decade 2000-2009. Good for getting a feel of how reliable the estimates were for that decade. This is actually a dynamic application that lets you choose your geography, years, and selected demographic characteristics.
  9. You can access state and county level population estimates with components of change, 2010-2015 (or most recent year of estimates), for the entire U.S. in our data archive using the uexplore/dexter software. The datasets are in the popests data directory, most easily accessed via the Datasets.html directory page. The four most pertinent data sets are mocom15, uscom15, mocomrgrns15 and uscomcbsas15. The first two consist of state and county level summaries, while the latter two are the result of our aggregating the data to get metro area and other county-based region summaries.
  10. The Applied Population Lab at the Univ of Wisconsin-Madison provides dynamic access to six decades of age-specific net migration data for all counties in the U.S. as well as 10 years of estimates by age-race and sex. Access the site at www.netmigration.wisc.edu .

  11. For information regarding projections (estimating the future) of the population for Missouri and the U.S. see our population projections web page. National (but no longer State) Level Projections are available from the Census Bureau.

    The Cooper Center at the U of Virginia offers national and state level projections with detail by age and sex. These have been generating using the results of the 2010 census and go through 2040.

    Finally, and somewhat mysteriously, there are some new (to us, at least) projections at the state level going through 2025. They contain breakouts by single year of age, sex and race/Hispanic. The mystery comes from the fact that there is no detailed documentation regarding these estimates, including what they are using for their racial definitions. These are available in a series of state-based .zip files for various time periods, all readily accessible at https://www.census.gov/population/projections/data/state/st_yr16to20.html .

  12. An alternative set of state and county level estimates by age (single years), race, sex and hispanic origin that use an alternate set of 4 ("bridged") race categories (for comparability with pre-2000 race categories before the advent of multi-race groups) were commissioned by the National Center for Health Statistics. The MCDC has downloaded and converted these estimates, which include both intercensal estimates for the decade of the 90's as well as post-2000 estimates (paralleling the CASRH collection). Find out more about this collection at the NCHS Bridged Estimates Readme page. (From there you can follow the link at the bottom of the page to access the actual data.)
  13. Uexplore/Dexter users can access city-level estimates for Missouri (thru 2016) in the mosc16 dataset or data for the entire US (including Mo) are available in the ussc16 dataset. (Note: Dataset names here are links to invoke Dexter for accessing those datasets.) These data for 2016 were released in May of 2017.

  14. Housing unit estimates by county are available in the popests data directory. We put up two new files for each annual data cycle. As of May 2015 you can access the latest data for all counties (plus states and the nation) via Dexter in the ushuests14, or you can get the Missouri subset of the same data in mohuests2014 data set. (Check for more recent versions, in case we have not updated this page. I.e. if you are reading this in 2016 look for a data set called ushuest2015 ).

  15. (This isn't exactly population estimates but we thought you'd want to know):
    Income (median household) and poverty estimates are produced by the Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates program at the Census Bureau. These intercensal estimates are available for states, counties and school districts. They can be easily accessed at the SAIPE web site. The Missouri Census Data Center has downloaded these estimates and created value-added datasets within the MCDC data archive. These can be accessed via our Uexplore/Dexter software in the saipe filetype directory.

  16. See the Census Bureau's Population Estimates page for more reports and for access to downloadable data files. This is the ultimate and authoritative source for almost all population estimates in the United States. Nearly all of the data that appears on the MCDC site is (or could be) based on data downloaded from this site. (We already provided this link at the top of the page next to the FAQ link but it's important enough to mention it twice.)

  17. See our Geographic Reference Reports page for links to an array of reports dealing with geographic subjects, some of which include recent population estimates (such as the reports showing the most recent estimates for all U.S. metro- and micropolitan statistical areas.)

Population estimates are produced as part of the Federal State Cooperative Program for Population Estimates (FSCPE) Program and released by the U.S. Census Bureau. The person who produces population estimates in conjunction with the Census Bureau for Missouri is the state demographer (see contact info, below) in the Office of Administration.

For more information about population estimates and the Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population Estimates, contact:

Matt Hesser, State Demographer, Matt.Hesser@oa.mo.gov
Missouri Office of Administration, Jefferson City, MO